The genius of cities is that they rarely die. Ancient capitals like Istanbul, Varanasi or Luoyang have survived for millennia while empires and nations have risen and fallen around them. One reason for their longevity is that they can be incredibly good at long-term planning. The sewers built in London following the Great Stink of 1858 are still in use today because they were designed to be twice as big as needed for the population at the time.
Now more than ever, we need this kind of foresighted thinking to confront issues ranging from the ecological crisis to threats from new technologies and even the next pandemic.We need to start planning decades or even centuries into the future.
So which cities today best demonstrate such long-term vision and commitment to future generations? My latest book, ‘The Good Ancestor: How to Think Long Term in a Short-Term World’, looks at precisely that issue. Here are five cities that are currently leading the way.
1. A living water factory in Dubai
Dubai has a reputation as a futuristic city, with superscrapers like the Burj Khalifa and plans for a hyperloop rail system where passengers will travel in a vacuum tube faster than an airplane.
Dubai and other cities in the United Arab Emirates are looking at innovative ways to develop more sustainable economies – an effort led by the UAE’s Minister for the Future.
One of these is a vision for the world’s first biodesalination plant to guarantee Dubai’s freshwater needs over coming decades. Featured in the city’s Museum of the Future, this living factory combines the latest in bioengineering with artificial intelligence.
Imagine a gigantic mile-wide jellyfish-like organism floating off the coast of the city, in which the genes of mangrove trees (whose roots are one of nature’s best desalinators) have been combined with jellyfish DNA (known for their capacity to absorb liquid), a biological creation that sucks both salt and pollutants out of the water. Drinking a glass of water will never be the same again.
2. Circular thinking in Amsterdam
In 1602 Amsterdam invented the stock exchange. Today it is leading the way in a very different area of economic innovation: the drive to create a fully circular economy, which radically reduces the amount of material resources the city uses, giving it a far lighter ecological footprint. Instead of throwaway consumerism, products are continually reused, repaired and refurbished, whether it is the electronic components of a phone or bricks for building homes. Imagine a city full of repair workshops and secondhand stores, where recycling is seen as a last resort.
Amsterdam has adopted the ambitious target to be 100 percent circular by 2050 and to halve the use of raw materials by 2030 (when fossil fuel cars will also be banned). By 2022, 10 percent of city procurement will have to be circular, too. The city government is basing its strategy on the Doughnut Model of British economist Kate Raworth, and is being pressured by the citizen-led Amsterdam Doughnut Coalition to ensure that the transition to a long-term sustainable economy guarantees social equity both locally and globally.
The city’s sustainability plans are also under the watchful eye of ten-year-old Lotta Crok, the first Junior Bicycle Mayor of Amsterdam.
3. Redesigning democracy in Yahaba
For 400 years the citizens of Yahaba, on Japan’s main island of Honshu, have held an annual “ash-rubbing festival”, smearing coal into their faces as protection from disaster and disease. But since 2015 they have pioneered another form of risk management known as Future Design.
Based on the Native American “seventh-generation principle”, where communities make decisions looking seven generations ahead, the Future Design movement practises a unique form of long-term democracy. Residents are invited to discuss and draw up city plans on issues ranging from investment in health care to taking action on climate change. In the first stage, they are asked to take the perspective of the present day. Then in a second stage, they are given a kimono-like ceremonial robe to wear and told to imagine themselves as residents from the year 2060.
The result? When imagining themselves in the future, they systematically come up with far more transformative plans – for instance, agreeing to pay higher taxes to repair Yahaba’s crumbling water infrastructure, because they know it will benefit their children and grandchildren.
Future Design has been so successful that it has now spread to big cities like Kyoto and Japan’s Ministry of Finance. Just imagine if cities around the globe adopted it.
4. Oceanix: the floating city of tomorrow
Ever dreamt of visiting a floating city? It won’t be long before you can. The Danish architect Bjarke Ingels has revealed a plan to create floating habitats for up to 10,000 people. Based on a modular design, where triangular groups of buoyant houses are clustered into groups of six to form villages and then linked into a larger archipelago, Oceanix will be able to withstand category-five hurricanes and tsunamis.
The design is based on the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, with the floating islands using sustainable materials and fully self-sufficient in terms of water, power and heat, while also being zero-waste and capable of producing their own food through communal sea farming. With backing from the United Nations, Ingels’s firm BIG has already built prototypes in Copenhagen and intends to test others on New York’s East River, before deploying the Oceanix concept in South-East Asia and beyond. Such cities could be the future of urban climate resilience. Just get ready to eat plenty of seaweed and fish.
